Probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts on durum wheat in the Mediterranean region

Recently, the availability of multi-model ensemble prediction methods has permitted a shift from a scenario-based approach to a risk-based approach in assessing the effects of climate change. This provides more useful information to decision-makers who need probability estimates to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts. <br><br> In this study, a probabilistic framework for evaluating the risk of durum wheat yield shortfall over the Mediterranean Basin has been exploited. An artificial neural network, trained to emulate the outputs of a process-based crop growth model, has been adopted to create yield response surfaces which are then overlaid with probabilistic projections of future temperature and precipitation changes in order to estimate probabilistic projections of future yields. The risk is calculated as the relative frequency of projected yields below a selected threshold. <br><br> In contrast to previous studies, which suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration over the next few decades would outweigh the detrimental effects of the early stages of climatic warming and drying, the results of this study are of greater concern

A model-based assessment of adaptation options for Chianti wine production in Tuscany (Italy) underclimate change

This paper covers a comprehensive economic analysis of climate change adaptation options for a specific wine producing region, namely Tuscany. As temperature increases under climate change, rainfall patterns will be different, and Chianti wine production in Tuscany therefore needs to adapt in the near future. We address the adaptation challenges and identify grape yield and quality loss as the main impact of climate change on wine production. Relocation of vineyards uphill and introducing drought-resistant varieties are considered as adaptation measures. We appraise these adaptation measures using an optimization framework, where regional wine producers maximize income subject to economic constraints including the climate change impacts on wine productivity and quality. Our simulation shows quantitatively to what extent a higher degree of climate change impact demands a higher degree of adaptation. We find that a combination of the two measures provides a better strategy because it leads to higher economic efficiency. However, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of the new variety discourages the use of this new drought-resistant variety, whereas a higher efficiency would make this choice more favourable. Sensitivity analysis for time horizon and discount rate confirms the theory of investment under uncertainty, showing a shorter time horizon (or more frequent investment) provides the possibility to postpone the decision to implement adaptation measures due to the value of flexibility, while a higher discount rate leads to a later adaptation decision, because uncertainty creates a value of waiting for new information

Mediterranean olive orchards under climate change: A review of future impacts and adaptation strategies

The olive tree (Olea europaea L.) is an ancient traditional crop in the Mediterranean Basin. In the Mediterranean region, traditional olive orchards are distinguishable by their prevailing climatic conditions. Olive trees are indeed considered one of the most suitable and best-adapted species to the Mediterranean-type climate. However, new challenges are predicted to arise from climate change, threatening this traditional crop. The Mediterranean Basin is considered a climate change “hotspot,” as future projections hint at considerable warming and drying trends. Changes in olive tree suitability have already been reported over the last few decades. In this context, climate change may become particularly challenging for olive growers. The growing evidence for significant climate change in the upcoming decades urges adaptation measures to be taken. To effectively cope with the projected changes, both short and long-term adaptation strategies must be timely planned by the sector stakeholders and decision-makers to adapt for a warmer and dryer future. The current manuscript is devoted to illustrating the main impacts of climate change on olive tree cultivation in the Mediterranean Basin, by reviewing the most recent studies on this subject. Additionally, an analysis of possible adaptation strategies against the potentially negative impacts of climate change was also performed

The Disks of Galaxies with Seyfert and Starburst Nuclei: II. Near-Infrared Structural Properties

We have derived the near-infrared structural components of a sample of Seyfert and starburst (SBN) host galaxies by fitting the images of Hunt et al. (1997,ApJS,108,229) with a new two-dimensional decomposition algorithm. An analysis of the fitted parameters shows that Seyfert 1 and SBN bulges resemble normal early-type bulges in structure and color, with (J-K)^c_b about 0.1 mag redder than disk (J-K)^c_d. Seyfert 2 bulges, instead, are bluer than normal with (J-K)^c_b ~ (J-K)^c_d. Seyfert disks (especially Type 1), but not those of SBNs, are abnormally bright (in surface brightness), significantly more so than even the brightest normal disks. Seyfert disks are also compact, but similar to those in normal early-type spirals. For a given mass, Seyferts and especially SBNs are abnormally rich in neutral hydrogen, and there is strong, albeit indirect, evidence for lower mass-to-light (M/L) ratios in Seyfert and SBN disks, but for normal M/Ls in their bulges. In Seyferts and SBNs, HI mass fractions and M/L ratios are anticorrelated, and we attribute the high gas mass fractions and low M/Ls in SBNs and several Seyferts to ongoing star formation. Such abundant gas in Seyferts would be expected to inhibit bar formation, which may explain why active galaxies are not always barred.Comment: 25 pgs (two-column, single-spaced) including 8 incorporated figures and 2 tables (aas2pp4, amssym, epsfig). Accepted for publication in Ap

Bosbrand en klimaatverandering

Elke zomer zijn er meldingen van bosbranden in Zuid-Europa. Vooral de branden in Griekenland kregen afgelopen jaar veel media aandacht. Het weer heeft duidelijk effect op het risico op (bos)branden en het gevaar ervan. In welke mate klimaatverandering zal bijdragen is niet te zeggen. Andere factoren zijn daarbij van belang, zoals o.a. terreinomstandigheden. De terreinbeheerder kan maatregelen nemen in de sfeer van brandsingels en soortensamenstellin